Friday, March 14, 2008

Gold versus Stock

The performance of gold bullion is often compared to stocks. They are fundamentally different asset classes: gold is a store of value whereas stocks are a return on value (i.e. growth plus dividends). Stocks and bonds perform best in a stable political climate with strong property rights and little turmoil. The attached graph shows the value of Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of an ounce of gold. Since 1800, stocks have consistently gained value in comparison to gold due in part to the stability of the American political system. This appreciation has been cyclical with long periods of stock out performance followed by long periods of gold out performance. The Dow Industrials bottomed out a ratio of 1:1 with gold during 1980 (the end of the 1970s bear market) and proceeded to post gains throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The ratio peaked on January 14th, 2000 a value of 41.3 and has fallen sharply since. William Anton III wrote in the 2004 issue of Jefferson Coin and Bullion "...downward movement in the Dow/gold ratio is unlikely to stop precisely at the mean trend line. The extreme distension of the 90s will likely overshoot to the opposite extreme in the current cycle."

In November 2005, Rick Munarriz of Motley Fool.com posed the question of which represented a better investment: a share of Google or an ounce of gold. The specific comparison between these two very different investments seems to have captured the imagination of many in the investment commuity and is serving to crystallize the broader debate. At the time of writing, a share of Google's stock and an ounce of gold were both near $700. On January 4, 2008 23:58 New York Time, it was reported that an ounce of gold outpaced the share price of Google by 30.77%, with gold closing at $859.19 per ounce and a share of Google closing at $657 on U.S. market exchanges. On January 24th 2008, the gold price broke the $900 mark per ounce for the first time. On January 25, 2008, gold and platinum prices claimed historic highs of 919.80 and 1,634.50 dollars per ounce, respectively.


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